I know this sounds doom and gloom, but it’s not meant to be. The buffet had his annual meeting today and said America will get through this, and I totally agree. It’s just I believe this is a 9/11 or great depression type event that will change our behavior in ways that we don’t know yet. Honestly, in the long run probably positively. But from a growth perspective and from the market, it does offer an opportunity. Printing money at billions a Top If You’re Brave Shirt. Why would you hire a new employee now if it will cost you less in the future- deflation?
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Over the past decade, the recovery was the slowest ever since WWII. And the interest rates never got above 2.5% historically very very low. Which begs the question why was it so slow? This will change consumer behavior like the Great Depression did, hopefully for the Top If You’re Brave Shirt. I believe the levels of debt accumulated during this crisis will inhibit investment from consumers and corporations for years to come. 40% of Americans couldn’t afford an unexpected expense of $400 without taking on debt before this crisis- during. Many highly regarded investors like Scott Minerd, Jeff Gundlach.
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This is how much earnings dropped in 2008, and I think this drop will be worse overall so in my opinion, it is a conservative estimate. Multiplying that by the average P/E ratio of the past 50 years you get 2,100 for the S&P. Multiplying it by a more realistic number you get 1800. One of the key indicators of a market bottom is capitulation when a Top If You’re Brave Shirt. The market bottoms when there is no one else left to sell. 16% selling doesn’t sound like capitulation to me. The last time all of these conditions were in place while the market ticked. Every higher on hope was the 2001 internet bubble. This is where it gets interesting if you weren’t already riveted by this rambling mess of an email.
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